FOR MOST OF THE LAST HALF CENTURY, GERMANY has been a dominant force in Europe. Its economic strength, its large population, and its strategic location have made it a powerhouse in the affairs of the continent. But the geopolitical landscape has been shifting and old certainties crumbling, and some of the assumptions on which German dominance was built no longer hold. The illusion of a world governed by mutually beneficial commercial relationships has given way to the harsh reality of a renewed great power competition, leaving Berlin with the task of rebuilding the very foundations of its security and prosperity. As the country prepares to head to the polls this Sunday, it faces a reckoning—one that will determine not just its own future, but that of the European Union as a whole.

AFTER THE FALL OF THE BERLIN WALL, a reunited Germany wrapped itself in the comforting blanket of ‘perpetual peace.’ In the decades that followed, it outsourced its energy production to Russia, its economic growth to China, and its military security to the United States. It convinced itself that this was fine because, in a globalized world, this kind of interdependence would only help to strengthen peaceful relationships between countries—a recycled version of the Enlightenment ‘commerce equals peace’ theory.

In reality, interdependence turned out to be mere dependence. By outsourcing its prosperity and security, Germany, and by extension all of Europe, had put its fate in the hands of others. This worked for a while, providing Germans with a sugar rush of artificial stability. Eventually though, it turned out commerce did not automatically guarantee peace and prosperity. The dependent relationships Germany had created became so many anchors threatening to drag the country down.

Things started to unravel three years ago when Vladimir Putin decided to roll the dice on a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Within a year, oil and gas imports from Russia had virtually dried up, forcing Germany to scramble for a solution. This was only the beginning of its troubles. The combined pressures of the war in Ukraine and the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic convinced European policymakers that the EU needed to embrace the concept of strategic autonomy. This required it to become less dependent on potentially faithless actors like Russia and China. Germany suddenly faced strong pressures to reduce its reliance on the Chinese export market. To the scramble for alternative energy supplies was now added a second scramble for new markets for its high-tech products. The net result of these two shocks has been a flatlining economy, with no immediate prospects for a resumption of growth.

Last week, a third crisis was added to the mix in the form of the Trump administration’s seeming readiness to cut all military ties with Europe. Speeches by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Vice President JD Vance delivered a sobering ‘Don’t count on us’ message, making it clear President Donald Trump has no plans to commit to European security. Worse, he seems willing to throw Ukraine under the bus and openly speculates about evacuating American troops currently acting as a guarantee against Russian invasion in the Baltics.

Germany had long postponed dealing with its twin traumas of militarism and hyperinflation by letting America take care of Europe’s security, both the organizing and the financing. The deal seemed to work for both sides, seeing the former aggressor Germany embedded in the European Union and NATO while giving the United States an important bridgehead on the western flank of the Eurasian continent, a crucial part of its global military strategy. The one downside was that it left the Germans with an army that, in the words of one Eastern European diplomat, resembled “a pension fund with tanks” more than a credible fighting force. But since ‘perpetual peace’ was meant to last, well, forever, this wasn’t thought to be a serious issue.

The lack of preparedness for military geopolitical shocks was suddenly exposed by the Trump administration’s apparent desire to rip up the North Atlantic Treaty and his open embrace of Russia. Germany now faces the prospect of not just having to dramatically increase its military capacity and send German troops into harm’s way in Ukraine, but of paying for these things themselves by breaking their own golden rule on deficit spending.

GIVEN THESE SEISMIC EVENTS, IT IS NO WONDER the electorate is restless to the point of embracing extremist options. The neo-Nazi Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), once a far-right fringe movement, has surged in the polls as economic malaise and geopolitical uncertainty drive voters toward radical alternatives. It tempts them with the suggestion that they can somehow return to the status quo ante, a past when Germany was white (racism is very much part of AfD’s platform), affluent, and most of all: unbothered by geopolitical concerns.

More than anything, these voters long for a return to the era of perpetual peace. Hence also the party’s promise of re-establishing links with Putin, even if that means sacrificing Ukrainian territory and overlooking Russian crimes against humanity. To these voters, the postwar German mantra of Nie Wieder —“Never Again”—clearly does not mean no more Holocaust-like atrocities but no more conflict with Russia.

The polls suggest up to a quarter of the electorate might back the AfD, a number perhaps boosted by the White House openly shilling for it in the closing weeks of the campaign.

Still, there is a good chance that the center will hold, enabling the formation of a broad coalition. If victorious, the likely new chancellor—the Christian Democratic Union’s Friedrich Merz—will face a herculean task: reviving the German economy while reasserting the country’s leadership in Europe, and safeguarding Europe’s control of its own destiny, starting in Ukraine. This means committing to serious defense spending, creating a viable industrial policy based on new export markets, and strengthening the European Union as a geopolitical force capable of holding its own in the new great power competition.

Germany’s absence from European leadership in recent years has been particularly glaring. While Paris and Warsaw have taken increasingly assertive stances on European security, Berlin has remained hesitant, unable to reconcile the demands of its coalition government with the necessity of action. This paralysis must end. The EU was founded on the idea that economic and political unity would safeguard peace and prosperity. But unity requires leadership. As the largest member state in the EU, it’s not just Germany’s privilege but its duty to provide it. Sunday’s election will show whether German voters agree, or whether they would in fact prefer to continue their long holiday from history.