Forty-eight hours after the flood occurred, officials faced questions about whether and when authorities sent out weather alerts and warnings before the deadly flash flooding. 

Here’s how the situation developed with the forecasts and alerts sent out by the National Weather Service:

Meteorologists with the National Weather Service offices in San Antonio and Austin began highlighting the potential for flooding as early as Tuesday. By Thursday morning, the messaging had intensified, with forecasters warning of the increasing risk of flash flooding and river rises.

A rare special weather discussion emphasized worsening trends. Forecasters noted:

The first official warning came just after 1 a.m. with a “Considerable” tag. This tag is reserved for significant and potentially life-threatening flash floods and typically triggers Wireless Emergency Alerts on mobile phones across the region. It’s currently unclear how cellular coverage in the area may have impacted people’s ability to receive the alert. 

Flash Flood Communication Update 

In the National Weather Service Chat, The NWS reported that up to 5 inches of rain had already fallen. Conditions in Kerr County suggested that flash flooding had already begun.

Flash Flood Situation Worsens

In a subsequent communication, the NWS warned that a “dangerous flash flood event is unfolding in south-central Kerr County.”

A rarely issued Flash Flood Emergency was declared — the most serious alert level in the flash flood warning system. This designation is reserved for only the most life-threatening and catastrophic flooding events. Only a small percentage of warnings reach this level.

Near Hunt, Texas, the Guadalupe River surged past its major flood stage of 22 feet, eventually cresting at an astounding 29.45 feet at 4:35 AM. The speed and magnitude of the rise are stunning.