CAUGHT: Vance, Rubio Admit Their Attacks On Speech Mean US NOT A Free Country In Old Video
April 16, 2025
The President’s Propagandists
April 17, 2025
AFTER DONALD TRUMP WAS ELECTED, the stock market surged as investors anticipated a more business-friendly regulatory and tax environment. Some dubbed it the “Trump effect.” But that optimism has soured after the wild volatility and economic downturn over the past couple of months, largely owing to Trump’s erratic tariff policies. Economic growth projections have been slashed, the likelihood of recession has spiked, and the S&P 500 crashed by nearly 20 percent (peak to trough) in less than two months. The index is still down about 12 percent from its recent high in February.
All this chaos has led to a different Trump effect. According to Gallup, the proportion of Americans who regard free trade as an opportunity for economic growth jumped from 61 percent last year to 81 percent from 2024 to 2025. Among Republicans, this shift is even more pronounced—43 percent to 78 percent. It turns out that watching the value of retirement accounts shrivel solely due to the arrogance, incompetence, and economic illiteracy of the president is a clarifying experience—even for some of Trump’s supporters.
As one institution after another caves to Trump, one important check remains: There’s nothing Trump can do to bend global financial markets to his will. While Trump’s acolytes pretend that his neurotic on-and-off tariff policy is part of some ingenious master plan, the truth is that he was bullied into submission last week by the bond market.
It’s a sad commentary on the decay of America’s democratic institutions that the market is now the most powerful check on Trump. While financial markets are subject to manipulation and can be captured by both irrational exuberance and irrational fear, they are usually extremely efficient information processors. Markets are a proxy for what people really believe is true about the world—MAGA members of Congress can spout all the familiar pro-Trump slogans about a golden age for America, but the real measure of the public’s confidence in Trump’s economic stewardship is how they adjust their portfolios. Markets provide immediate feedback on Trump’s actions. They can’t be flattered or pressured. They can’t be swayed by alternative facts.
Even before “liberation day” sent markets into a tailspin, 55 percent of Americans thought Trump was focusing too much on tariffs. Between Trump’s inauguration and mid-April, his net approval rating collapsed by 16 points, while net approval of his handling of the economy plummeted by 19 points. U.S. consumer sentiment is rapidly falling, and 12-month inflation expectations jumped to their highest level since 1981. While Trump has capitulated on the most extreme tariffs, the average effective tariff rate is still 28 percent—the highest since 1901. Trump is also continuing to wage a trade war on China, with disastrous consequences for many American businesses and consumers. Although Trump has been forced to relent—for now—his appetite for economic risk remains very high. He could still worsen the economic crisis by undermining the independence of the Federal Reserve or continuing to intentionally devalue the dollar in a bid to make American manufacturing more competitive.
POLITICAL FEEDBACK THROUGH THE FINANCIAL markets (and the broader economy) is important because much of the other damage Trump is inflicting on the country isn’t immediately apparent to voters. The Trump administration has slashed billions of dollars in funding to universities and institutions like the National Institutes of Health, and there’s no telling what the ultimate consequences will be—from discoveries that won’t be made to innovations that won’t exist. The long-term consequences of Trump’s systematic dismantling of the guardrails that prevent conflicts of interest and other forms of corruption—such as his mass firings of inspectors general—are impossible to predict, as we don’t yet know the extent of his own corruption or how these weakened guardrails will be exploited in the future. Trump is undermining long-standing norms of judicial independence by demanding the removal of judges who issue rulings he doesn’t like. By declaring that the 2020 election was fraudulent and pardoning the insurrectionists responsible for breaching the U.S. Capitol, Trump attacked the most sacred norm in American democracy: the peaceful transfer of power.
Americans had plenty of evidence that Trump’s second term would be the greatest authoritarian power grab in American history. But they still elected him, and one reason stood above all the rest: They believed he would be a better steward of the economy. As that illusion falls apart, Trump’s typical strategy of deception and deflection may no longer work. If American consumers are right that prices will spike this year—whether or not we enter a recession at the same time—it will be difficult for the White House to spin this economic pain as anything other than Trump’s fault. It’s been a long time since there’s been an economic crisis more directly attributable to the reckless unilateral actions of an American president. Trump’s economic numbers have already taken a dramatic turn for the worse, and the consequences of his trade war will only become clearer over time.
DESPITE THE ECONOMIC PAIN Americans will be forced to endure, Trump’s immediate implementation of his protectionist agenda is a political gift. He made a major tactical error: His naked economic incompetence has given Democrats a powerful case against him, and it’s unlikely that he will be able to reverse course in time to avoid punishment in the midterms. He has shaken global confidence in the U.S. economy, which will take many years to repair, and which will remain evident in the demand for American equities and debt. The lack of constraints on his behavior among his coterie of lackeys means he will still feel empowered to pursue the destructive economic policies he has wanted for decades. Congress has ceded its power of the purse to the White House, and there’s nobody left in the executive branch to tell him how badly he’s screwing things up.
When the economic reckoning comes, Trump will have nobody to blame but himself. Economists, the United States’ trading partners, investors, and even the American public are telling Trump that his tariffs are a huge mistake, but he isn’t listening. And if there’s one silver lining to Trump’s concentration of power, it’s that he has left no doubt about who is in charge.
Imagine if Trump had been more strategic. He could have continued gutting the federal government and creating his spoils system while keeping his ridiculous economic ideas in the background. He could have continued to take credit for the “soft landing” that was achieved before he took office—under the Biden administration, inflation dropped precipitously without triggering a surge in unemployment. Instead, Trump’s approval rating has already cratered and he’s using up precious political capital with nothing to show for it.
One of the most alarming aspects of the 2024 election was the indifference American voters showed toward Trump’s relentless assault on their democracy. They memory-holed the deadly violence on January 6th and Trump’s scheme to steal the election. They were undeterred by his vows to pursue retribution against his political enemies and his embrace of the January 6th insurrectionists. They ignored the warnings about how Trump was planning to destroy institutional guardrails and concentrate power in his own hands.
Americans are now witnessing how much damage a president can cause when those guardrails have collapsed. There’s a reason the economies of liberal democracies tend to outperform their authoritarian rivals over the long term—checks and balances ensure that no leader can inflict too much harm before being reined in by other branches of government or the voters. Trump has made the destruction of that system one of his overriding goals, which is why he has been so catastrophically disinhibited.
Perhaps Americans would have been willing to accept the corrosion of their democracy in exchange for lower prices at the grocery store. But the “golden age” Trump promised Americans is conspicuously failing to materialize—what they’re getting instead is an economy that is hostage to the daily whims and grievances of a would-be autocrat. As George Orwell retorted when the communists insisted it was necessary to break a few eggs to make an omelette: “Where’s the omelette?” If Trump presides over a recession or some other economic crisis, the central promise of his presidency will be exposed as a lie. Maybe then Americans will take a harder look at the rest of his agenda.
If Trump tries to get out of NATO—which looks increasingly likely—the three-quarters of Americans who believe the alliance should be maintained may be more inclined to speak up. If he continues to defy the courts and deport people with no due process, Americans may no longer be willing to avert their gaze. As accessing government services becomes more difficult as a result of the mindless across-the-board DOGE cuts, there’s substantial evidence that Americans are losing their patience with the billionaire who thinks he can take a chainsaw to any agency or program he doesn’t like. Trump is governing as if he won with 70 percent of the vote, not the 49.9 percent he actually received. He’s overplaying his hand, and American voters seem prepared to call him on it.
In his Memoirs of the Second World War, Winston Churchill observed that “Truth is incontrovertible. Panic may resent it. Ignorance may deride it. Malice may distort it. But there it is.” It will take time for the truth about many of Trump’s policies to become clear. It’s difficult to quantify the destruction of American soft power or the weakening of democratic guardrails. The price America will pay for losing the trust of its closest allies and trading partners won’t be fully understood for a long time. But the cost of Trump’s economic delusions is numerical, tangible, and immediate. The Trump administration and its defenders will continue to present every lurching policy adjustment and market downturn as evidence of success. “Trust Trump!” they will continue to say. But the truth will remain: Trump has no idea what he’s doing.
Great Job Matt Johnson & the Team @ The Bulwark Source link for sharing this story.
