I’ll be live on Substack today at 12:30 p.m. EDT with Tim Mak to talk about his reporting from Ukraine. It’s not going to be sunny; but it is vital. I hope you’ll join us. The discussion will be here:

JVL + Tim Mak Live @12:30

You should write about what you know, so I want to explain what Trump’s tariffs are going to do to the watch industry.

Some caveats and clarifications up front:

• The watch industry is not important.

• If all mechanical watchmaking disappeared tomorrow, the world would barely notice.

• Conversely, if people who spend hundreds, or thousands, of dollars for gadgets that are inferior at timekeeping to a $25 Timex have to spend extra money on their gadgets? Who cares. This is the sound of the world’s smallest violin.

The only point in discussing watches is to illustrate three larger principles about Trump’s tariffs:

1. They are based on lies.

2. They will not work in their stated goal of “bringing manufacturing back to America.”

3. Instead, they will cause needless economic hardship.

So let’s dive in.