Finland is widely seen in Western Europe and the United States as a progressive paradise. In truth, its center-right-led coalition government in office since June 2023 has presided over far-reaching austerity measures, leading to rising homelessness and cuts in local health provisions. Yet there are also signs that this period may finally be coming to an end.

The coalition government, led by Petteri Orpo’s pro-business National Coalition Party, has seemingly been weakened by the collapse in the vote share of its main partner, the harder right Finns Party, in municipal and regional elections held on April 13. This signals the probability of a government led by the center-left Social Democratic Party (SDP) following the next general election, to be held by spring 2027 at the latest.

Chair of the right-wing populist Finns Party Riikka Purra admitted defeat on results night, describing a “red wave” sweeping Finland. Overall, the Finns Party (formerly “True Finns”) was down 6.8 percent compared to the 2021 municipal elections, while the Social Democratic Party (headed by Antti Lindtman, who replaced outgoing premier Sanna Marin in 2023) made gains of 5.3 percent and had the highest vote share overall. Meanwhile, the democratic socialist Left Alliance boosted its vote by 1.3 percent, overtaking the Finns Party and sitting just behind the Green League, with which it often forms a red-green pact. Crucially, while the SDP increased its percentage share, the red-greens did not suffer as a result, as in previous elections. This time, the SDP took votes from the Finns Party after making the local elections a kind of referendum on the coalition government’s austerity measures.

Still, this has its limits. The SDP has moved further toward the center since 2021, when Marin was prime minister, during which time she gave members of the Left Alliance and the Green League important cabinet positions. In contrast, Lindtman’s Social Democrats approved several of the government’s social-security cuts in their alternative budget and have signaled openness to forming a future coalition with the center right.

This places Left Alliance as the genuine left opposition, who must perform well in the next general election to gain any leverage over the center. I emailed a handful of politicians from the party to see what currents they picked up on the local campaign trail, to better understand how they might move forward.

Olli Kohonen, a mental health nurse based in the Northern city of Oulu, who won both regional and municipal seats, cites mental health, waiting times, and eldercare as important campaign themes: “Basic issues that are really close to everyday life.”

Ville Kellokumpu, a postdoctoral researcher who also ran in Oulu, says, “The current coalition has been very austerity-minded, hawkishly demanding quickly balanced budgets from the regions [responsible] for welfare, which has led to a deterioration of especially health and social security services. The poll gains for the Left Alliance are a response to that.”

Seemingly, the Left has made advances by simply pledging support for working people and functioning services. Former Left Alliance leader and current member of the European Parliament Li Andersson argues that while the Finns Party promised that it would not cut services — in this, claiming to stand up for the Finnish working class — once in government it supported a slash-and-burn policy. “The Finns Party have been trying to present themselves as a kind of voice of the working people. And I think we now see a huge contrast between what they’ve said and what they’ve actually done,” she comments. Andersson sees these elections as a “vote of no confidence in the right-wing government.”

So did they lose that confidence vote? The Finns Party was rejected. Yet the main ruling party, National Coalition, will more likely feel that its austerity approach has been exonerated: indeed, Prime Minister Orpo’s party increased its municipal vote share by 1.2 percent, even though this only placed it second overall. Further, while many expect an SDP-led government sooner or later, it is not clear if it will lean toward left-wing parties or the center right. Meanwhile, even though the Finns Party is in decline, it should also be recognized that its voters generally turn out in higher numbers for general elections (turnout this week was just 54 percent for the municipal vote and 51 percent for the regionals). In these results, contradictions and uncertainties outnumber clear rules.

The best path for the Left Alliance may be to continue to build bridges with workers, with simple messages to bring working Finns to the Left: “You want affordable, prompt health care? So do we,” “You want a secure future for your family? So do we,” and so on.

As Left Alliance leader Minja Koskela told me in email, “many are fed up, and rightly so, with their material conditions noticeably worsening. The hardest hit are those with already low incomes, working-class people, students, single-parent families, disabled people, and elderly people with low pensions.”

If bridges can be built with the oppressed and disaffected, perhaps Finland can become the beacon of hope that many in the West imagine it is — with the Left Alliance once again playing a key role in government. Koskela’s party seems to be going some way to achieving this, building upon Andersson’s work in Marin’s coalition. Not for the first time, the women leading the Finnish left are bringing hope.