What The Hell America!

Vietnam’s leading automaker remains undeterred despite a botched U.S. expansion and $9.8 billion in accumulated losses.

VinFast shipped its first electric vehicles to the U.S. in 2022, and has been reeling under poor sales and disappointing reviews in the country. It has now turned its focus to Southeast Asia, India, and the Middle East. 

Since 2024, VinFast has exported EVs to Indonesia and the Philippines, secured dealerships in Oman and the United Arab Emirates, and started building manufacturing facilities in India and Indonesia to springboard its regional expansion.

For all the optimism VinFast projects, its pivot to new markets comes with new challenges. Chinese automakers, notably BYD, dominate Southeast Asia. In India, VinFast would be up against homegrown giants like Tata Motors and Mahindra, while in the Middle East, Tesla and BYD have already taken the lead.

“VinFast is refocusing on markets where it has a better chance of success. Southeast Asia should have been the priority from the start, given its proximity and rising EV adoption,” Soumen Mandal, senior analyst at global technology analytics firm Counterpoint Research, told Rest of World. “U.S. reviews won’t impact demand in Asia or [Middle East and Africa]. Consumer expectations and competitive dynamics are different.” 

The company took the feedback from U.S. customers and upgraded its EV software and other systems, a VinFast spokesperson told Rest of World over email.

“In select Asian market[s], we are committed to building a comprehensive EV ecosystem with our partners Xanh SM, and V-Green,” the spokesperson said, referring to a VinFast-exclusive taxi brand and charging company, both majority-owned by founder Pham Nhat Vuong.  

“VinFast has a well-defined financial strategy to drive sustainable market expansion” and plans to break even in 2026, the spokesperson said. In the third quarter of 2024, VinFast posted a net loss of $550 million, which was 14.8% lower compared to the same period last year.

On its home turf in Vietnam, VinFast has proved nearly unstoppable. In September 2024, it became the country’s top-selling car brand. It dominates domestic EV sales thanks to a near monopoly over charging infrastructure, leaving little room for Chinese giant BYD. Of the 97,399 vehicles VinFast sold last year, around 90% were absorbed domestically.

But a sizable chunk of its sales were made to Vuong’s Xanh SM, Vietnam’s largest e-taxi service. The remaining 10% was distributed across North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia, according to Counterpoint Research.

VinFast aims to double its deliveries this year, targeting sales of at least 180,000 units, but its drive into Southeast Asia hasn’t been all smooth.

Last August, VinFast confirmed to Bloomberg it was delaying its launch in Thailand, Southeast Asia’s largest EV market, just as the country’s EV sector was experiencing a price war.

VinFast has instead directed more attention to Indonesia, where it’s replicating its Vietnam playbook. Last December, Xanh SM taxi entered Jakarta. In March, a batch of 2,500 VinFast EVs arrived in the country on a ship from Vietnam. Its new assembly plant in Indonesia, designed to produce 50,000 EV units annually, is expected to be operational by year’s end. A nationwide network of 100,000 charging stations is also in the pipeline. 

Indonesia, despite having one of the lowest car ownership ratios among Southeast Asia’s major economies — 82 cars per 1,000 persons — is forecast to become the largest EV market in the region, with 4.5 million units sold by 2035, according to Boston-based business strategy firm EY-Parthenon.

Should the Vietnam strategy succeed in Indonesia, it “could lay the groundwork for VinFast to expand this model to the Philippines and other countries in the near future,” the VinFast spokesperson said. 

BYD was the best-selling EV brand in Indonesia in 2024. The most important factor for a prospective EV buyer in the country is price, with brand coming in second, Hendra Lie, automotive industry leader at PricewaterhouseCoopers Indonesia, told Rest of World. The cheapest BYD car available in Indonesia is the Dolphin, priced at 369 million rupiah ($22,000). VinFast’s mini SUV, VF3, costs just 227.65 million rupiah ($13,700) and comes with free charging at V-Green charging stations.

VinFast is also building a factory in Indonesia, which could help it reduce prices further. Nickel-rich Indonesia “wants to play a bigger role in the [EV] supply chain,” Lie said. The country offers extra incentives for automakers who establish local manufacturing facilities — including discounts on value-added tax, and exemptions for luxury goods.  

Early last year, VinFast broke ground on a factory in India. The plant is expected to be operational by June this year. 

“VinFast’s decision to fast-track the construction of its Thoothukudi facility … underscores their intent to capture first-mover advantage in India’s emerging EV market,” Ashwin Amberkar, an independent auto analyst in India, told Rest of World.  

Its plan to start selling C-segment SUVs in the second half of this year “points directly at urban, upper-middle-class consumers who are increasingly looking for premium yet sustainable mobility solutions,” he said.

The 50,000-unit factory is located in Tamil Nadu, India’s major EV production hub, which is close to key ports. It will “enhance efficiency and export potential to cater the needs of [a] few countries in South Asia, Middle East, and Africa,” Diwakar Murugan, an auto analyst at TK Canalys, told Rest of World. 

Murugan views VinFast’s India expansion with caution, saying the “timeline carries risks, including potential delays, reliance on the pace of EV adoption, and the challenges of navigating India’s complex regulatory landscape.” 

Its Middle East strategy, however, differs from its approach in Asia, with no announced plans for manufacturing facilities or an EV taxi service. The company has signed a slew of agreements with major companies in the region to support an EV transition. In early March, it signed a potential $1 billion investment deal with private equity fund JTA Investment Qatar. 

But VinFast will have to compete on price and brand awareness, according to Shivaum Punjabi, who runs car website Cornea Impression in Dubai. 

The company seems to be vying for the luxury segment in the UAE. The VF8 model from its premium lineup costs $47,500 — higher than Tesla and BYD’s cheapest models. 

“It’s challenging because BYD is known to be the world’s largest carmaker in terms of EVs. They’re in the news every day,” Punjabi told Rest of World. 

Despite VinFast advertising billboards flanking the streets of Dubai, “most people don’t know about it,” he said.