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Donald Trump’s return and the shock caused by Washington’s U-turn on Ukraine have revived Emmanuel Macron’s leadership — almost as if he had forgotten the instability on the national scene. France has entered “a new era,” said the French president during a recent televised speech to the nation calling for rearmament but also for the population to take a stand faced with international threats. ”It’s a quarter before midnight, but we still have the touch,” Macron recently warned.
For several weeks, the president’s entourage has been reminding the press that Macron has long backed stronger European defense and a European sovereignty that stands independent of all other powers. Macron had already emphasized these ideas in his symbolic “Sorbonne speeches” when he presented his vision of Europe after first coming to power in 2017. Since Trump’s Oval Office clash with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, his advisers no longer even need to stress the importance of this talking point.
Amid international disorder in which US military commitments seem to be waning, European states are trying to find new ways to continue supporting Ukraine. More and more politicians want to use the €210 billion of frozen assets of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to finance military aid to Ukraine. A resolution to this effect was adopted by the French National Assembly but continues to divide Macron’s camp, with some fearing that this threatens Europe’s financial stability. Economists have pointed out that seizing sovereign assets of third countries in euros risks discouraging them from holding reserves in euros. This could trigger a sale of euro-denominated bonds, which would raise their interest rates and depreciate the euro.
“I want to make it clear to the Americans that disengagement from Ukraine is not in their interest,” insisted Macron, who also proposes to open a discussion on the role of French and European nuclear deterrence in the face of the disengagement of the United States in the war in Ukraine. Macron already said last year that the possibility of sending Western troops to Ukrainian soil should not “be excluded” in the future.
The French president has been constantly active in recent weeks on the issue of Ukraine. He invited the leaders of seven European countries to Paris on February 17 for an emergency meeting on assistance to Ukraine. Then, two days later, he organized another emergency summit with eleven countries before going to Washington to meet Trump. Macron also welcomed military leaders from some thirty countries who gathered in Paris for a conference on defense and security.
However, we can wonder if France or the European Union (EU) can play any material role in the conflict — or if it is not more likely that Trump will impose the solution regardless of the Europeans’ decisions. This is especially true given that significant divisions remain within the EU over sending troops to Ukraine or over war efforts and military spending.
Macron also broke the traditional codes of presidential communication by addressing the French directly on social media without going through a mainstream media. During a live video on social media on February 20, for almost an hour Macron answered questions from online viewers about France’s role in the Ukrainian conflict.
Macron sought to assert his place by showing that he is ready to weigh in on the political debate until 2027, the year of the next presidential elections. His party, Renaissance, may never have borne its name so well, for this international standing is indeed helping Macron’s poll numbers. A week after his speech to the French on Ukraine, Macron’s confidence rating increased by six points in a month, one of the biggest increases since the beginning of his first term in 2017.
Turning all eyes to the international stage is, in fact, a strategy that the French president has adopted for several months — firstly, with a strong presence in international media. On CNN, he gave a tour of the Élysée Palace, the president’s official residence, and talked about art; and in the Financial Times, he described Donald Trump’s return as an “electroshock.”
Macron, who will not be able to run for a third consecutive term in 2027, is banking on the international scene to boost his legacy and secure his future, with possible other ambitions. “The French entrusted me with their protection,” said Macron, during his New Year’s greetings to the French army. Defense and diplomacy are still the rare areas where he can showcase his influence.
We saw it during February’s Artificial Intelligence (AI) Action Summit in Paris, where Macron announced a major investment of €109 billion euros for AI, but also during his trip to Beirut after the election of the new Lebanese president, Joseph Aoun. There, Macron announced that he would hold an “international conference for the reconstruction” of Lebanon in Paris.
He also welcomed leaders from around the world during last summer’s Olympic Games and the reopening of the iconic Notre-Dame Cathedral last December, where his vision for rebuilding the cathedral was highlighted. At the same time, he also organized a meeting between Trump and Zelensky.
All this effort seems to be paying off. Almost half of the country (49 percent) believes that Macron represents France well abroad, an increase of six points in one year, according to a poll from Odoxa-Backbone Consulting. Many made the comparison with the former center-left French president François Hollande, who, after the political debacle of the 2016 Loi Travail (a liberalizing labor market reform that met with strong protests), also turned to the international scene to boost his standing.
“He must find his war in Iraq,” said others, echoing the aura of another former French president, Jacques Chirac, who stood up to the United States in 2003 by rejecting the case for the invasion — a stinging note addressed to US president George W. Bush, who dreamed of taking down Saddam Hussein’s government in Baghdad. Abroad, Chirac remains the president who said no to the war in Iraq, a no that strengthened his popularity in the Arab world.
However, overall Macron’s popularity is still flagging. Halfway through his second five-year term, Macron reached a record level of unpopularity: only 21 percent of French people say they are satisfied with his actions, according to a recent poll. Indeed, never in the history of the Fifth Republic, founded in 1958, has a president reached such a level of unpopularity.
This turn against Macron is particularly widespread among retirees and the elderly, an important part of his base. The French still do not understand his choice to dissolve the National Assembly last summer after the European elections. Far from giving the president and his allies a new mandate, the snap elections led to political instability, produced an even more fragile government, and almost brought Marine Le Pen’s far right to power.
To escape a no-confidence vote, French prime minister François Bayrou agreed in mid-January to reopen talks on pension reform in order to prevent another collapse of government. This unpopular reform, sought by Macron, which raised the starting age from sixty-two to sixty-four years, prompted a powerful street protest movement and strikes in 2023. Macron could also dissolve the National Assembly again, but not before the summer of 2025, due to the Constitution, which requires one year between each dissolution. But there is no guarantee that the resulting legislative vote would allow new balances of power to emerge.
France is now relying on temporary measures to prevent the shutdown of the government amid budget debates in order to help reduce France’s deficit and enable key expenses, such as military spending amid Russia’s war with Ukraine. Would public opinion follow if it were necessary to increase spending and aid to Ukraine when, for example, the anger of farmers is still very high in France?
Macron’s omnipresence on the international scene also diverts attention from a major current scandal surrounding sexual abuse and violence against students at the Notre-Dame de Bétharram private school in southwestern France. The affair has amplified since Mediapart highlighted the proximity of the prime minister, François Bayrou, to the case. At the Elysée, it is readily acknowledged that at a “national level, not much is likely to happen” in the coming year due to the current major international situations.
Macron has announced plans to organize one or more referenda this year to regain some legitimacy, more than two years from the end of his five-year term. The French may be consulted on the ratification of the free-trade agreement between the European Union and Mercosur, proportional representation in parliamentary elections, the end-of-life law, or immigration. The president must, in fact, hold out until the municipal elections in March 2026. After that, the presidential race will open, and all eyes will turn away from him.
Great Job Romain Chauvet & the Team @ Jacobin Source link for sharing this story.
