What The Hell America!

It’s the first major statewide race since President Donald Trump’s election. It could determine the future of abortion and election disputes in a key swing state. And it’s attracting millions of dollars in spending from Elon Musk. 

Early voting starts Tuesday for a consequential Supreme Court race in Wisconsin, one that will shape the balance of power on the state’s highest court.

Judge Susan Crawford, a liberal, and Judge Brad Schimel, a conservative, are vying to replace outgoing liberal Justice Ann Walsh Bradley for a 10-year term in a race that will determine whether liberals maintain their 4-3 liberal majority on the state’s highest court. 

The April 1 contest is attracting significant outside spending and attention — including from Trump ally Elon Musk, the world’s richest person. As Musk reshapes the federal government with significant job and spending cuts through the so-called Department of Government Efficiency, his political groups have already dropped over $12 million into supporting Schimel. 

With different parties controlling the legislature and governor’s office in Wisconsin,, the state Supreme Court plays a critical role in ruling on policies ranging from abortion to labor rights and election disputes. Conservatives winning back control of the court would represent a major victory in a state where Republicans have long held the levers of power but where Democrats have been making inroads. 

The issues 

Crawford supports abortion rights and, in a March 12 debate, accused Schimel of “trying to backpedal” his stance on the 1849 abortion ban. Schimel said the ban was a “valid law” but did not believe it reflects the will of the people of Wisconsin today. He also said he believed abortion policy should be decided by voters and not by the courts. 

The U.S. Supreme Court sending matters like abortion back to the control of the states only amplified interest and attention in state court races. Wisconsin’s Supreme Court is likely to rule on abortion rights cases, including a case on the constitutionality of Wisconsin’s 1849 abortion ban. Abortion in the state is currently legal following a 2023 ruling from a Dane County judge. 

“If four justices on the majority in the court can make that decision for the voters, that decision can flip back and forth every time the majority flips,” Schimel said. 

On Tuesday evening, Crawford will speak at a rally at the University of Wisconsin-Madison with Mini Timmaraju, the president of the abortion rights group Reproductive Freedom for All, and Amanda Zurawski, an abortion rights advocate and storyteller. 

“Voters are going to be pretty clear-eyed that the attacks on reproductive freedom were not time bound to 2022, but they’re very much alive and well here in 2025,” said Yasmin Radjy, the executive director of progressive group SwingLeft, which is mobilizing its supporters to engage in the race. “And Wisconsin is just a really great example of that.”

Anti-abortion groups are taking notice as well. Women Speak Out, the political action committee affiliated with Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, is spending money and sending out canvassers for get-out-the-vote efforts in the race. Kelsey Pritchard, Women Speak Out’s political communications director, called Crawford “an extreme abortion activist, not an impartial judge” in a statement announcing the investment. 

“Brad Schimel has a sound record of respecting the Constitution and checks and balances in our government. Like President Trump, he believes the people should make the laws – not judges helping out their political allies from the bench,” she said. 

The electorate 

Off-cycle spring elections tend to have lower turnout and attract the most engaged and plugged-in voters who, in recent years, have leaned increasingly Democratic. While the result won’t necessarily be predictive of the 2026 midterm elections, the level of turnout and the margin for the winning candidate is expected to capture voter sentiment at a critical moment in time. 

In 2023, liberal Justice Janet Protasiewicz won over her conservative opponent Dan Kelly by a margin of 10 percentage points.

Democratic candidates have overperformed in the state legislative special elections held so far this year. Democrats are hoping the Wisconsin race will be an outlet for voters to channel their dissatisfaction with Trump’s presidency and Republican control of the federal government amid frustration with the party’s leadership in Washington. 

“For the past several weeks, what we’ve been hearing every single day from volunteers and donors is some version of the question, ‘What can I do?,’” Radjy said. 

“What they are lacking is a feeling of agency in this moment on what they can do to really, truly put a check on Trump,” she added. 

Spending

Spending in the race is already on track to surpass $100 million, breaking the record set by the 2023 Supreme Court election in the state that was, at the time, the most expensive state Supreme Court election in U.S. history. That election came the year after the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization overturning Roe v. Wade. 

“Across the country, records are continuing to be broken in judicial elections,” said Douglas Keith, a senior counsel at the Brennan Center for Justice who analyzes spending in state supreme court races. “And it’s clear that the effect from Dobbs has really shone a light on how important these courts are and attracted a lot of attention to their races.”

The candidates and outside groups have already spent nearly $60 million, according to a Brennan Center analysis of ad spending in the state. The Musk-aligned Building America’s Future and America PAC are the two single largest outside groups spending money in the race, putting $12.3 million toward supporting Schimel so far. 

“While we’ve seen large amounts of money in judicial elections before, I’ve never seen millions of dollars being spent from someone as close to the White House as Elon Musk is,” Keith said. “It just shows how important these races have become.” 

Democrats are aiming to make the election a referendum on Trump and Musk. Schimel, a former state attorney general, has a long record of supporting Trump; at a rally Saturday, he posed with a 50-foot inflatable Trump with a “vote Brad Schimel” sign affixed to its chest. He also appeared at a campaign event with Donald Trump Jr., Trump’s oldest son, who argued that the race is critical to his father’s agenda. 

Outside spending also came up at Crawford and Schimel’s March 12 debate. 

“I have support from all over the country, and it is because Elon Schimel is trying to buy this race. And people are very upset about that, and they are disturbed about that,” Crawford said.

Schimel said that he had no control over outside groups’ spending in the race and that it had no bearing on how he would rule on cases. 

“I will apply the law the way the legislature has written it,” he said. “If President Trump or anyone defies Wisconsin law, and I end up with a case in front of me, I’ll hold them accountable as I would anybody in my courtroom.”

The Wisconsin Democratic Party is holding a series of “People vs. Musk” town halls highlighting Musk’s influence. Gov. Tim Walz, the former governor of neighboring Minnesota and 2024 Democratic vice presidential nominee, is holding a series of town halls of his own in Republican-controlled districts. He is also set to speak at one such town hall Tuesday evening in Eau Claire. 

“Our side is now feeling really ready — they’re so angry at him, and they’re so angry at what he’s trying to do to our federal government,” Radjy said. “And this feels like a very tangible way to not just turn their anxiety and their anger into action, but actually have a path to victory that they can wrap their heads around.”

Wisconsin’s politics 

While Trump narrowly carried Wisconsin by less than a percentage point in 2024, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin won reelection to a six-year term, and Democrats broke Republicans’ supermajority in the state legislature. In 2026, Democrats will be hoping to pick off more state legislative seats and are aiming to flip a competitive House seat held by GOP Rep. Derrick Van Orden.  

They’re hoping the April 1 contest shows again that they can win in the state. 

Radjy believes that Democrats in Wisconsin are providing a roadmap for liberals, like conservatives, to be playing both offense and defense to build power. 

“We are under no illusion that our side also ought to and is at our best when we are doing a multi-front effort,” she said.  

“In the same way that Wisconsin has really been a testing ground for the right. It’s been a really inspiring testing ground for our side,” Radjy said.